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Articles

Why the Rules-Based International Order is Indispensable
Thomas Reuter, EXTRA Chair
March 26, 2026
Article
The article argues that a rules-based international order is neither a Western illusion nor a dispensable luxury, but a civilizational necessity. It traces its deep historical roots, warns how isolationism and power politics erode global law, and contends that defending shared legal frameworks is essential to managing existential risks.
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The Global Peace Offensive: A common framework for roll-out
Donato Kiniger Passigli and Charlotte 脴rnemark, Global Peace Offensive Center
March 26, 2026
Article
The Global Peace Offensive (GPO) is a proactive initiative led by academic and civil society actors to address rising global conflict through de-escalation and local engagement. By utilizing a common diagnostic framework and “Appreciative Inquiry,” the GPO prioritizes human security and grassroots diplomacy to build sustainable, bottom-up peace.
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Multi-layered harms of oil extractivism
Anja Nygren, EXALT Founding Member & Prof. of Global Development, University of Helsinki
February 23, 2026
Article
Horizontal perspectives miss the full impact of oil extractivism. We must link subterranean, terrestrial, and atmospheric spaces to understand the polycrisis that results. Major producers drive climate change, soil degradation, and injustice. An integrated approach鈥攍ooking upwards, downwards, and sideways鈥攊s essential to grasp the socio-spatial harms of fossil fuel production.
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Extractivism and the Polycrisis: What Lies Beneath? A Commonist Response
S. A. Hamed Hosseini; Senior Lecturer in Social Sciences, University of Newcastle, Australia; Fellow, 被窝影视福利 of Art and Science
February 23, 2026
Article
The “polycrisis” persists because of “compartmentality”鈥攖he structural separation of economic, social, and ecological spheres under capitalism. This article advocates for “re/commonization,” a dual strategy of grassroots commoning and political struggle to rebuild organic connections, move beyond extractivism, and restore a holistic, interconnected world.
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Digital Extractivism: How AI Centers Strain Water Resources
Ana Maria Paraschiv, EXTRA Communication and Networking Specialist
February 23, 2026
Article
Extractivism today goes beyond mining to include the overuse of water for AI data centers. Intensive water consumption for cooling reduces availability for agriculture and human use, creating local vulnerabilities. This article explores the hidden social and ecological costs.
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The EXTRA Risk Landscape Chart (RLC): Mapping the Global Risk Reporting Landscape
Mike Marien, Director of Research, EXTRA
Lorenzo Rodriguez, Research and Project Officer, EXTRA
January 20, 2026
Special Feature
Major reports and books now address multiple existential threats rather than single risks, reflecting growing recognition of interconnected x-risks. However, methodologies and priorities vary widely across organizations, leaving readers uncertain about which risks matter most. EXTRA’s Risk Landscape Chart (RLC) covers 35 reports and 7 books reporting on the global polycrisis. It reveals how experts frame and prioritize risks differently: geopolitical instability, cybersecurity, climate change, and AI appear consistently, yet emphasis shifts by sector. This cartography illuminates both consensus and divergence in risk assessment, serving as a tool for foresight and collaboration.
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A Moment for Truth: Current Geopolitical Destabilisation has Major Flow-On Effects on other X-Risks
Thomas Reuter, EXTRA Chair
January 20, 2026
Article
This article examines a defining historical moment: the deliberate dismantling of the post-World War II multilateral order that prevented catastrophic conflict and enabled global cooperation on existential challenges. This breakdown is catastrophically timed, occurring when humanity faces threats demanding greater international coordination, not nationalist retreat. Challenges the notion that authoritarian leadership offers solutions, instead asserting that democratic governance, truth-seeking through open deliberation, and evidence-based reasoning are indispensable for survival. Thomas contends that humanity’s greatest strength lies in rational thought, free communication, and voluntary cooperation鈥攅ssential ingredients for navigating contemporary crises and coordinating unified global governance.
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Independent Risk Amplifiers: Towards a more integrated way of understanding X-Risks
Thomas Reuter, EXTRA Chair
December 12, 2025
Article
Paul Crutzen鈥檚 concept of the Anthropocene has accustomed us to think of existential risks as arising from our collective actions. Anthropogenic climate change is perhaps the most well-known example of such self-destructive cultural pathologies. Understanding how human behaviour drives nature-based existential risks is essential, but it is not enough in itself. The gradually recognized concept of polycrisis conveys the further realisation that risks interact directly with one another and/or indirectly through systemic effects. What is often still not considered is that x-risks can be massively amplified by independent factors that are not drivers of nature-based existential risks in and of themselves, but strongly impact our social resilience or political capacity to mitigate x-risks. This article looks at a pair of closely interconnected risk amplifiers: inequality and authoritarianism.
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AI Update 2025: Recent Articles on the AI Industry and Impacts
Mike Marien, EXTRA Director of Research
December 12, 2025
Article
The October 2025 EXTRA Newsletter included an AI/AGI essay with 32 footnotes鈥攎ostly citing recent AI reports, three books, and several articles, primarily from the New York Times. Topics covered the massive and growing AI industry, actual and potential impacts, and 11 reports calling for guardrails. Since mid-October, over a dozen articles have explored related topics: Nvidia’s central role, the “AI bubble” in the stock market, the global spread and impact of data centers, and ChatGPT’s Sora app generating “AI slop.”
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Polycrisis and Systemic Risk: Assessment, Governance, and Communication
Huan Liu, School of Public Administration, South China University of Technology, and Ortwin Renn, Research Institute for Sustainability 鈥� Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (RIFS)
November 13, 2025
Article
In recent years, the focus of integrated disaster and risk research has shifted from topical analysis to a comprehensive understanding of interconnected, mutually interactive risk sources and crises. This evolving perspective has often been described through the concept of “polycrisis, which emphasizes how crises in one domain can amplify or cascade into others. Recently, Prof. Liu and Prof. Renn published a review paper in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Science that summarizes the literature and delineates the implications of a joint understanding of polycrisis and systemic risk for the practice of risk assessment, risk and crisis governance, and effective communication to different audiences. This article summarizes the findings of this analysis.
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Ethics, Governance, and Systemic Resilience in an Age of Polycrisis
Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Research Institute for Sustainability 鈥� Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (RIFS)
November 13, 2025
Article
The recognition that society’s critical infrastructures and ecological supports are deeply interconnected has led to calls for new approaches to both resilience and governance that are adaptive, participatory, and ethically grounded. Dr. Schweizer’s recent work with Sirkku Juhola and a paper by Benjamin Hofbauer et al. advance this by reimagining how systemic risks can be governed and how resilience can be ethically framed. Building on this work, the author proposes that the challenge of the Anthropocene is not only how to make systems endure, but also how to make them just and equitable.
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Polycrisis, systemic risk and resilience: Novel analytical insights and evidence needed to turn crisis into opportunity
Reinhard Mechler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
November 13, 2025
Article
The concept of Polycrisis鈥攁 system of interconnected and compounding crises鈥攊s receiving increasing attention. In our dynamic and complex world, multiple crises often interact, potentially leading to global tipping points and local adaptation limits. While not entirely new, it has gained greater prominence as the mutual amplification of nested, intertwined systemic risks increasingly defines the global landscape of the twenty-first century. This reality requires new approaches to analysis, assessment, and governance. This article explores how interconnected risks can be addressed to yield multiple, overlapping benefits for resilience.
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Recent Reports and Articles on the AI Race, Impacts, and Needed Guardrails
Michael Marien, EXTRA Director of Research
October 17, 2025
Special Collection
For better and worse, Artificial Intelligence, or AI, is already widespread and still evolving, perhaps toward听AGI and superintelligence in the next few years. This overview seeks to identify many of the headlines and bottom lines of recent reports and articles, as well as three books鈥�all published in 2025, with two exceptions.听 It is divided into three major parts: I) The AI Race between the US and China and a handful of massively spending US technology organizations; II) Impacts of AI: both current and expected; and III) Creating Guardrails for this emerging and influential technology.
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Balancing Benefits and Risks: The Role of AI in Education
Polonca Serrano, Assist. Prof., Alma Mater Europaea University听
October 17, 2025
Article
AI is transforming education through intelligent tutoring systems, chatbots, and analytics tools that adapt to individual learning styles, provide real-time feedback, and improve outcomes. However, it introduces risks like superficial learning, reduced emotional resilience, deepening inequalities, threats to academic integrity, and platform dependence. AI cannot replace human judgment, critical thinking, and interpersonal guidance. It explores AI’s benefits and risks in education, emphasizing ethical, inclusive, and strategic implementation.听
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Beyond Efficiency: AI for Rhythm- Aware, Compassionate Healthcare
Kiriti Prasad Choudhury, Manager, Beximco Pharmaceuticals
October 17, 2025
Article
AI is changing healthcare, but technology alone can’t solve the challenges posed by aging populations, chronic diseases, and strained systems. Modern medicine excels in precision yet lacks empathy. Integrating Medicine, Nature, Mind, and Rhythms鈥攑rinciples from Ayurveda and Chinese Medicine, now research-validated鈥攊s essential. Healthcare remains fragmented. It outlines a rhythm-aware framework using humane AI.
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Europe鈥檚 Moral Compass for AI: From Regulation to Realisation
Samraj Matharu, Founder, The AI Lyceum
October 17, 2025
Article
AI is rapidly transforming society. The EU has responded with a comprehensive framework, including the AI Act and the new Apply AI Strategy, to regulate AI risks and promote responsible deployment across sectors. The vision of an evolving “agentic web” highlights AI鈥檚 growing autonomy while maintaining responsible oversight.
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What Is Needed Most in Risk Reporting?
Michael Marien, WAAS/EXTRA Working Group
September 23, 2025
Article
In the Netflix series “Life on Our Planet,” Morgan Freeman noted that humans are the first species aware of extinction risks and capable of responding. While true, this overlooks a crucial reality: dozens of potential causes threaten humanity, with hundreds of organizations addressing single issues through fragmented proposals. Can a new UN report cut through this complexity and drive meaningful action?
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Technology and The Crisis of Containment
Prof. Thomas Reuter, WAAS/EXTRA Working Group
August 13, 2025
Article
The accelerating race for military and technological supremacy has reached a critical juncture where traditional containment strategies are becoming obsolete. In an era of exponential innovation鈥攆rom artificial intelligence to bioweapons鈥攖he unchecked pursuit of technological dominance threatens not just security but human survival itself. This dangerous trajectory demands a fundamental shift from external, physical containment to “inner containment”: a commitment to voluntary restraint, international law, and human security principles. This article argues that only by embracing such ethical self-limitation can humanity step back from the precipice of self-destruction and build a more just and sustainable global order.
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