Existential Threats and Risks to All
Readers of the EXTRA newsletter will be aware that several major reports and some recent books seek to cover a spectrum of existential threats and risks, rather than specialising in monitoring a single risk. For better or worse, the number of such ‘risk overviews’ is likely to grow as recognition of the interconnectedness of x-risks grows. These overviews differ in their preferred methodologies and in the focus they adopt, depending on the priorities and perspectives of the organisations and authors who produce them. Top-ranked risks vary from one report to another, leaving readers somewhat at a loss about which risks are most important and urgent.
EXTRA, therefore, introduces below a Risk Landscape Chart (RLC) listing 37 reports and 11 books that address multiple risks, threats, and challenges contributing to what is now often described as a global polycrisis.
The RLC shows how different experts, scholars, businesses, insurers, governmental agencies, multilateral bodies, and research centres currently frame, analyse, and prioritise global risks. It reveals both convergence and divergence in how different communities approach risk analysis. While specific threats鈥攕uch as geopolitical instability, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, climate change, and AI-related risks鈥攁ppear consistently across many reports, the emphasis and framing nevertheless vary significantly depending on mandate and sectoral focus. Financial institutions prioritise portfolio implications, insurers foreground emerging liability vectors, intelligence communities stress security dimensions, and development organisations highlight human welfare implications. Other global risks appear in some reports but are ignored in others. This reflects the multidimensional nature and complexity of contemporary global challenges themselves, but it also reveals the absence of a unified consensus on risk assessment and risk hierarchies.
Items are arranged chronologically from 2026 back to 1979. The ranked and non-ranked items in the column ‘Top Risks/Threats/Trends’ appear numbered if they were ranked in the report, and if they were not ranked, they will appear bulleted only. A separate Appendix listing 22 organizations that publish relevant reports and books can be found here.听
Ultimately, a cartography of risk reporting illuminates the complexity of the subject and the still-emerging consensus on how to approach risk monitoring. Moreover, the chart can also become a tool for foresight and research collaboration. Most of these reports are annual publications, and the RLC will be continuously updated. Readers are encouraged to suggest additional reports and books that should be included. Please, send your proposals to extra@worldacademy.org
EXTRA is also developing quantitative methods for analysing these risk overviews, and risk reports more generally. Watch this space!
Report | Frequency | Method | Top Risks/Threats/Trends | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
World Economic Forum, Jan 2026, 102p. | Annual | Survey of 900+ global experts (academia, business, govt, intl orgs, civil society) | 1-Geoeconomic confrontation 2-Misinformation and disinformation 3-Societal polarization 4-Extreme weather events 5-State-based armed conflict | "The Age of Competition" reveals a negative outlook: 50% of experts anticipate a turbulent period over 2 years, rising to 57% over 10 years. Multilateralism is declining. Geoeconomic confrontation is the top short-term risk, alongside rising economic concerns. Misinformation and AI outcomes are key tech risks. Environmental risks are deprioritized in the short term but remain severe in the long term. |
Eurasia Group, Jan 2026, 46p. | Annual | In-house geopolitical expertise | 1-US political revolution 2-Overpowered 3-The Donroe Doctrine 4-Europe under siege 5-Russia鈥檚 second front | The Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2026 report frames 2026 as a "tipping point," with the United States "unwinding its own global order" and becoming the "principal source of global risk." Amidst ~60 active conflicts, China's "21st-century infrastructure" and AI dominance (adding 429 GW new power capacity in 2024 versus the US's 51 GW) starkly contrast with the US. AI's lack of governance poses a major danger. |
Global Challenges Foundation, Dec 2025, 56p. | Irregular | Risk analysis and policy recommendations | 1-Climate Change 2-Biodiversity Collapse 3-Weapons of Mass Destruction 4-AI in military decision-making 5-Near Earth Asteroids | A significant governance gap is noted: coordinated responses to asteroid impact threats, but a lack of comparable mechanisms for higher-risk Earth-system tipping points. Advocates a "paradigm shift in international cooperation" via three transformations: from fragmentation to connection, from erosion to legitimacy, and from imbalance to inclusion. Concludes that "the rules written for a stable world no longer fit the one taking shape before us." |
The Cascade Institute. Sept 2025, 48p. | Irregular | Risk analysis and policy recommendations | -Climate heating -Ecological degradation -Toxicity -Zoonotic disease transfer -Demographic divergence | Introduces the "Stress-Trigger-Crisis" model, distinguishing slow-moving, trackable global systemic stresses from fast-moving trigger events to explain how vulnerabilities accumulate over decades, leading to recurrent crises and "polycrisis". Identifies 14 such stresses affecting nine vital global systems, arguing that "trigger events only become trigger events because accumulated stresses have eroded a system鈥檚 resilience". |
AXA, Oct 2025, 56p. | Annual since 2014 | Survey with experts and members of the general population. (3,595 from 57 countries) (23,000 from 18 countries) Conducted May-June, 2025. | 1-Climate Change 2-Geopolitical Instability 3-Cybersecurity Threats 4-AI and Big Data 5-Social Tensions | "Confidence is declining in the capacity of public authorities to handle the deepening global polycrisis." Highlights growing social divides, with 74% of experts and 59% of the public seeing deep societal fractures. Only 12% of experts believe authorities are prepared for climate change, despite 66% feeling vulnerable daily. Risks like AI and cybersecurity are rising rapidly. |
Ipsos, Sept 2025, 64p. | Annual since 2014 | Survey in 43 countries, interviewing 33,083 adults, age of 16-74. Conducted May-June, 2025. | -Low trust in institutions -Concerns over data privacy and technology regulation -Increasing individualism -Digital trust and transparency challenges | Maps an uneasy decade amid global distrust, where 56% of people believe 鈥渢he system is broken,鈥� with low trust in governments and only slightly higher trust in business leaders. Technology remains a double-edged sword: 74% are concerned about data privacy, yet 71% believe technology is needed to solve problems. |
BlackRock Investment Institute, Sept 2025, 8p. | Monthly updates since 2021 | In-house expertise plus data mining | -US-China tensions -Russian aggression -Middle East conflict -Election volatility -Trade policy | The geopolitical landscape is marked by escalating trade protectionism, intensifying US-China strategic competition centered on AI and technology decoupling, and a protracted Russia-NATO conflict. The US has raised tariffs on over 90 countries. AI advances drive a 鈥渢urbocharged鈥� race, with national security concerns influencing policy. |
CRO Forum, July 2025, 27p. | Annual since 2018 | Expert consultations | -Cyber risks -Healthcare deterioration -Trade conflicts -Space risks -Geopolitical conflicts | Recognizes 29 emerging risks to impact the insurance sector within 1-10 years. Includes climate change, driving extreme weather, and chronic shifts that increase claims and pricing challenges. AI and robots create new cybersecurity, liability, and ethical risks. Underinvestment and complexity cause critical infrastructure failures. Aging populations and declining health strain liabilities. |
Swiss Re Institute, June 2025, 35p. | Annual since 2013 | In-house specialists, consultations | -Extreme heat -Plastics litigation -Workforce shortages -AI fraud -Institutional trust decline | Extreme heat kills up to 480,000 people yearly, more than floods, earthquakes, and hurricanes combined. Highlights eight emerging risks, including deepfakes, fast-evolving fungi, and AI failures. 鈥淚nterconnected risks demand proactive analysis and global solutions.鈥� Insurers must continuously adapt risk horizons, e.g., "AI fraud rising by 60% since 2023." |
Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Mar 2025, 31p. | Annual since 2006 | Intelligence Community collective assessment | -Transnational crime/terrorism -Cyber attacks -Critical infrastructure threats | 鈥淭hreats to US national security are more complex than ever鈥�, focusing on China, Russia, etc. Underscores over 52,000 US deaths from synthetic opioids and nearly 3 million illegal arrivals in 2024. Flags cyber threats from all major adversaries, especially China, and highlights rising cooperation among hostile actors. NOTE: The 2024 Assessment (40p.) covered a broader horizon, including environmental change, health security, disruptive technology, expansion of nuclear stockpiles, etc. |
KPMG International, Mar 2025, 50p. | Annual | Interviews/workshops with 100+ KPMG professionals, secondary research, case studies | 1-Shifts in power, economic centers & trade 2-Complex, fragmented regulatory & tax environment 3-Fast-moving, politicized technology 4-Multiple threats to supply chains, assets & infrastructure 5-Demographic, technological & cultural workforce pressures | Analyzes pressing geopolitical challenges for global businesses. Fragmented regulations are evolving at different speeds. Supply chain threats from geopolitical rivalries, protectionism, conflict, cyberattacks, and climate. Workforce pressures from aging populations, AI integration, and culture wars. The sectoral heat map shows high/moderate/limited impact across 7 sectors. Includes 3,418 harmful trade interventions in 2024. |
BDO, Feb 2025, 30p. | Annual since 2018 | Survey of business leaders | -Supply chain -Cyber security -Economic uncertainty -Regulatory compliance -Talent shortages | Reveals a "paralysis by crisis", with 69% of companies now risk-averse, up from 61% last year. Only 7% claim very proactive risk management, down from 29% in 2023. Warns that 84% of executives view the risk environment as crisis-driven. Organizations remain trapped in defensive postures, and this "retreat from risk" could stall growth. Urges turning risk into a competitive advantage. |
AlixPartners, Jan 2025, 80p. | Annual since 2020 | Survey of 3,200 executives | -Supply chain disruption -Geopolitical instability -Cyber threats -Economic uncertainty -Regulatory changes | Nearly 90% of CEOs report rising productivity, yet disruption itself surged to 57% of executives reporting being "highly disrupted"鈥攖he highest level in two years. Signals a productivity revolution, with 80% optimistic about AI, and 61% prioritizing AI for revenue growth over cost-cutting. Vulnerabilities persist: 45% expect worsening supply chain disruption, 46% cite cybersecurity as a major threat. |
Casualty Actuarial Society/Society of Actuaries, Jan 2025, 17p. | Annual since 2008 | Survey of risk managers (23 Risks across Five Categories) | 1-Climate change 2-War (Including civil wars) 3-Disruptive technology 4-Cyber/networks 5-Demographic shift | Climate change and wars tied for the top concern, with disruptive technology in third place. Cybersecurity and AI manipulation rank as the two most pressing AI risks, with 94 respondents flagging cybersecurity threats and 90 citing deepfake concerns. A shift emerged in the May 2025 survey: financial volatility surged 24% as a current risk, rising to the top spot, while wars dropped 11%, reflecting volatile economic expectations. |
Eurasia Group, Jan 2025, 40p. | Annual since 2011 | In-house geopolitical expertise | 1-G-Zero Wins 2-Rule of Don 3-US-China breakdown 4-Trumponomics 5-Russia still rogue | US-China is poised to trigger economic disruption, while Russia will pursue asymmetric attacks on the EU. Trumponomics threatens inflation and reduced growth through tariffs and mass deportations. AI advances unchecked鈥攎eaningful constraints emerging only when developers hit hard limits. Warns of "ungoverned spaces," emphasizing that this moment is a survival-of-the-fittest geopolitical environment.鈥� |
World Economic Forum, Jan 2025, 104p. | Annual | Survey of 900+ global experts (academia, business, govt, intl orgs, civil society) | 1-State-based armed conflict 2-Extreme weather events 3-Geoeconomic confrontation 4-Misinformation & disinformation 5-Societal polarization | 52% anticipate an unsettled outlook in the short term, 62% expect stormy/turbulent long-term. Environmental risks show most significant deterioration over 2 to 10 years. Inequality most interconnected risk. 64% foresee a multipolar/fragmented order. Under-30s rank Pollution #3 for 2035. Super-ageing societies face pension crises and labour shortages. GenAI amplifying false content at scale. Biotech risks are emerging. |
United Nations Development Programme, Jan 2025, 21p. | One-off | Survey of 400 experts | -Climate impacts -Demographic shifts -Technological change -Social inequalities -Integrated solutions | Over 800 million live in extreme poverty, with three-quarters projected to be in sub-Saharan Africa or conflict zones by 2030. Maps 12 interconnected themes rated by the International Science Council for imminence and impact. Trade restrictions surged to 3,000 in 2023 amid geopolitical fragmentation. Renewable energy is set to surpass coal in 2025. School connectivity can boost GDP per capita by 1.1% in least developed economies. |
Economist Intelligence Unit, Jan 2025, 28p. | Annual | -Survey of 3,500 senior executives across six industries and all major regions -Natural language processing (NLP) analysis -Interview programme with trade experts and senior executives | -Geopolitical risks -Economic uncertainty -Trade fragmentation -Inflation -Slower growth | Global trade is entering "its most turbulent era since the 1930s". 75% are diversifying suppliers to spread risk, 40% are increasing US sourcing, and 32% are adopting dual supply chains. Non-aligned countries are vital intermediaries, with 71% of executives trusting them for risk mitigation. Traces vocabulary from "Washington Consensus" (multilateralism, deregulation) to "New Globalisation" (geopolitics, climate, AI). Strategic balance between diversification and localization now defines competitive advantage.鈥� |
OECD, Dec 2024, 43p. | One-off | Collaboration with 30 government experts, 20 countries | -Interconnected societal, political, economic risks -Governance failures -Systemic threats | Maps 13 emerging critical risks. Climate-driven disruptions and disinformation dominate. Strikingly, AI, cyberwar, and digital rights are absent, even as AI-generated suggestions identify deepfakes, VR echo chambers, and disinformation bots as emerging threats. One-off surveys risk "groupthink" and false finish-line bias, suppressing unconventional emerging risks and outliers. Urges mapping using multiple methods to detect nascent threats. |
KKR, Dec 2024, 87p. | Semi-annual since 2018 | In-house investment experts | -Inflation persistence -Geopolitical fragmentation -Debt sustainability -Tech disruption -Demographics | Projects cautious optimism anchored by surging US AI-driven productivity and S&P 500 earnings growth of 11%. However, an "asynchronous recovery" poses risks. KKR's Regime Change thesis emphasizes larger deficits, sticky inflation, and geopolitical rivalry, advocating pivots toward private credit and accelerated intra-Asia trade, and expecting oil to decline to $60/barrel.鈥� |
RAND 被窝影视福利land Security Operational Analysis Center, Oct 2024, 237p. | One-off | Expert assessment and analysis | -Nuclear war -Climate change -AI -Pandemics -Supervolcano | Assesses 6 threats to civilization: nuclear (billions dead, trillions lost), climate (2掳C likely, 4掳C <1%), AI (human disempowerment risk), pandemic (tech can lower severity), supervolcano (every 15k years), and asteroids. Notably, asteroids are classified by size into three categories: small (~30 m), medium (several hundred meters), and large (a few km). |
UK Ministry of Defence, Sept 2024, 456p. | Every 3 years since 2003 | In-house analysis, international consultation | -Global power competition -Demographic pressures -Climate change -Technology -Inequality | Identifies six interconnected drivers and 22 underlying trends. Critical projections: global population reaches 10 billion, food demand rises 50%. US-China technological rivalry in AI, quantum, and communication infrastructure 5G/6G poses acute miscalculation risks across shared spaces. Five alternative scenarios caution planners against assuming preconceived outcomes. |
SJ Beard & Tom Hobson (eds), Open Book Publishers, Sept 2024, 718p. | Book (Vol 2 of 2) | Edited collection (23 chapters) | -Transformative AI -Bioengineering and engineered biological risks -Climate change and food鈥憇ystem cascades -Nuclear weapons and large鈥憇cale weaponized catastrophes -Governance and institutional fragility | 23 heavily-footnoted chapters on X-risk. Curates interdisciplinary existential risk research on AI, biological hazards, climate, pandemics, and militarized emerging technologies. Emphasizes transdisciplinary governance mechanisms and the interactions among multiple risk factors that amplify danger. Existential risks demand agency-driven mitigation frameworks, not passive catastrophism. |
Millennium Project, Sept 2024, 519p. | Annual | Global foresight and expert assessment | -Unregulated advanced AI/AGI emergence -Climate change and associated disasters -Nuclear escalation and strategic brinkmanship -Information warfare and disinformation -Synthetic biology and distributed WMD production | Underscores that 鈥渉umanity faces unprecedented challenges,鈥� emphasizing climate change, technological risks, and societal instability. Urgent, coordinated action is needed to address global issues, particularly the 15 Global Challenges outlined in the report (notably organized crime). Without such efforts, 鈥渨e risk losing control of our future.鈥� Emphasizes foresight and proactive policymaking to navigate complex, interconnected threats. |
Policy Horizons Canada, Sept 2024, 37p. | One-off | Foresight study and stakeholder analysis | 1-Disinformation 2-Biodiversity lost and ecosystem collapse 3-People cannot afford living 4-Monetized biodata 5-Billionaires run the world | Foresees 鈥�35 plausible disruptions,鈥� with top risks including disinformation, ecosystem collapse, and world war. Stresses understanding interconnections and ripple effects to develop resilient strategies. Warns that 鈥渢he worst impacts will arise from amplified risks and cascading crises,鈥� urging policymakers to enhance preparedness. |
B眉ndnis Entwicklung Hilft/IFHV, Sept 2024, 64p. | Annual | WorldRiskIndex methodology: Assesses disaster risk for 193 countries based on exposure (earthquakes, tsunamis, cyclones, flooding, drought, sea level rise) x vulnerability (susceptibility, lack of coping capacities, lack of adaptive capacities) | 1- Philippines (46.91) 2- Indonesia (41.13) 3- India (40.96) 4- Colombia (37.81) 5- Mexico (35.93) | Theme: "Multiple Crises"鈥攅xamines cascading, compound, systemic risks. Ranks 193 countries by disaster risk (exposure 脳 vulnerability). Water crisis amplifier: 2.2 billion lack safe drinking water; 80-90% of extreme weather events are water-related. 90% at high flood risk in low/middle-income countries. 22% in war zones develop depression/anxiety/PTSD. 14.5M deaths expected by 2050 from climate change. |
EC Joint Research Centre, June 2024, 110p. | One-off | Foresight and Delphi survey (92 experts) | -Decreased well-being -Supply chain disruption -Democracy erosion -Environmental degradation -AI surpassing human capabilities | Maps 40 risks across 10 clusters, emphasizing increasing unpredictability and ambiguity. Highlights that environmental degradation, AI surpassing human control, and biodiversity loss could constitute 鈥減otentially existential risks,鈥� demanding stronger international cooperation, horizon scanning, and proactive policy responses. |
OECD, June 2024, 13p. | One-off | Policy framework development | -Horizon scanning -Risk assessment -Information sharing -Governance -Policy coordination | Recommends a seven-step approach to managing emerging risks. It underscores the importance of international cooperation and early warning systems. Notes that 鈥渇ailure to anticipate or react to critical risks could lead to systemic breakdowns,鈥� calling for robust, adaptive policy architectures. |
Lloyds Register Foundation & Gallup, June 2024, 45p. | Bi-annual | Poll of 147k people in 142 countries | -Disaster experience -Personal resilience -Protective capacity -Individual risk perception -Global vulnerability | 30% experienced a disaster in the past 5 years. Shows declining resilience from 2021 to 2023, with 43% saying they cannot protect themselves from future disasters. Documents a troubling disconnect between rising disaster exposure and diminishing individual/community capacity to respond, suggesting that resilience-building efforts are failing to keep pace. |
Michael J. Albert, MIT Press, April 2024, 298p. | One-off | Critical social science and futures analysis | -Interconnected systemic crises -Capitalism/earth crisis -Climate/energy/food/economy -Collapse scenarios -Ecosocialism | Age of interconnected systemic crises with no end in sight. Chapters on critical futures, planetary systems, socioecological crisis, and scenarios: collapse, neofeudalism, techno-leviathan, ecomodernist socialism, fortress degrowth, ecosocialism. Warns but cautions against apolitical escapism. |
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Jan 2024, 19p. | Annual | Science and Security Board assessment | -Nuclear weapons proliferation -Climate change -Biological risks -AI -Disruptive technologies & misinformation | 90 seconds to midnight (closest since 1947), citing nuclear proliferation, climate change, biological risks, and AI as the main drivers. It warns that 鈥渢he risk environment has never been more perilous,鈥� emphasizing the urgent need for global disarmament, climate action, and technological safeguards. |
Global Challenges Foundation, Jan 2024, 49p. | Irregular | Risk analysis and policy recommendations | -Climate change -Ecological collapse -Weapons of mass destruction -Risk interaction -Amplification effects | Challenges include climate/ecological collapse, nuclear WMDs, and AI, with a focus on cascading interactions. Urges collective action and strengthening global institutions. It emphasizes early detection and risk mitigation strategies across interconnected domains. |
Michael Lawrence et al., Global Sustainability, Jan 2024, 16p. | One-off | Causal analysis of interconnected crises | -Crisis entanglement -Causal mechanisms -Multiple global crises -Systemic interconnection -Feedback loops | Maps causal mechanisms鈥攕uch as feedback loops鈥攅ntangling economic, environmental, and technological stresses. Stresses that 鈥渢he polycrisis demands systemic, multi-scalar responses,鈥� emphasizing the importance of holistic risk governance and long-term resilience to prevent escalating systemic failures. |
Peter S酶gaard J酶rgensen et al., 锘縋hilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, Nov 2023, 15p. | One-off | Systems analysis and trap identification | -Anthropocene traps -Extinction risks -Growth pursuit -Biosphere disconnection -Global/tech/structural vulnerability | Identifies 14 鈥渁nthropocene traps,鈥� including growth dependence and biosphere disconnection, which threaten human survival. They emphasize that 鈥渢hese traps reinforce each other, entrenching systemic vulnerabilities,鈥� urging transformative change in societal and ecological systems to escape these feedback loops. |
SJ Beard, Martin Rees, Catherine Richards, Clarissa Rios Rojas (eds), 锘縊pen Book Publishers, Aug 2023, 333p. | Book (Vol 1 of 2) | Edited collection (10 chapters) | -Existential risk mitigation efforts -X-risk & science governance -Global justice & catastrophic risk -Natural catastrophic risks -Biosecurity & biotechnology | 10 chapters from leading experts covering: intellectual history of X-risk & historical mitigation efforts, societal collapse theories, X-risk governance links, global justice dimensions of catastrophic risk, strategies to reduce X-risk, natural hazards (asteroid, volcanic), ecological collapse, biosecurity in biotech age, AI existential safety history, military AI risks. |
Emile P. Torres, Routledge, July 2023, 542p. | Book | Scholarly analysis and historical review | -History of extinction anxiety -Ethical frameworks -Anthropogenic risks -Philosophical perspectives -Risk evolution | Examines history and ethics of extinction fears, describing 鈥渄eep-rooted anxieties鈥� and 鈥渆thical dilemmas鈥�. Argues 鈥渆xtinction fears are intrinsic to human consciousness,鈥� emphasizing 鈥渢he importance of ethics and prevention strategies,鈥� and highlighting 鈥減rogress in understanding risk.鈥� |
UNICEF Innocenti & Atlantic Council, Jan 2023, 53p. | One-off | Foresight analysis focused on children | -COVID-19 -Inflation -Food insecurity -SDG impacts -Child welfare threats | Highlights COVID-19, food insecurity, inflation, and systemic risks impacting children. Urges integrated responses to protect future generations and reach SDGs. 鈥淭he polycrisis magnifies vulnerabilities,鈥� especially for children in marginalized communities, emphasizing 鈥渦rgent global action.鈥� |
The Elders, Jan 2023 33p. | One-off | Internal policy framework development | -Climate crisis -Pandemics -Nuclear weapons -Conflict -Cross-cutting commitments | Founded by Nelson Mandela in 2007, The Elders is a small group of eminent retired leaders, including Ban Ki-Moon, Gro Harlem Brundtland, and Mary Robinson (Chair). Outlines the climate crisis, pandemics, nuclear weapons, conflict, and cross-cutting concerns, and calls for 鈥渦rgent action on existential threats鈥� and 鈥渁 sustainable planet.鈥� |
Niall Ferguson, Penguin Random House, July 2022, 512p. | Book | Historical analysis by prominent historian | -Pandemics -Wars -Gray rhinos -Black swans -Science limits | Describes historical disasters, systemic failures, and institutional limitations. Warns 鈥渙ur complex systems are fragile,鈥� and emphasizes 鈥渘eed for better foresight and cooperation.鈥� Calls for 鈥渞eforming institutions鈥� to better handle crises. 59 pages of notes. Popular scholarly history of catastrophe and institutional failure. |
Citi GPS, Apr 2021, 98p. | One-off | Internal expertise, scenario analysis | -Climate change -Biodiversity loss -Antimicrobial resistance -Pandemics -Cyber risk | Identifies Global Risk Nexus of 10 systemic risks from climate/biodiversity to pandemics/cyber. Examines interconnections: climate drives biodiversity loss, impacts food chains, and triggers financial crises. Proposes prevention, mitigation, and adaptation via scenario analysis. |
Toby Ord, Barnes & Noble, Mar 2021, 480p. | Book | Academic survey and analysis | -Nuclear weapons -Climate change -Environmental damage -Asteroids -Pandemics | Comprehensive survey of past and future X-risk. Covers anthropogenic (nuclear, climate, environmental), natural (asteroids, supervolcanoes), pandemics, AI, and dystopias. Proposes a grand strategy for existential security. 600-item bibliography, 133 pages of notes. Essential reference on X-risk landscape. |
Thomas Moynihan, MIT Press, Nov 2020, 472p. | Book | PhD thesis (Oxford Future of Humanity Institute) | -History of extinction thought -Existential threats -Human extinction discourse -Scientific perspectives | Chronicles the historical development of extinction fears, from philosophical roots to modern scientific understanding. Emphasizes 鈥渢he importance of ethics and governance,鈥� and argues 鈥渁ction is still insufficient鈥� despite increased awareness. Bibliography: 800 items. Timeline: 400 BC to the COVID-19 pandemic 2020. Foundational text on X-risk intellectual history. |
Martin Rees (Cambridge Univ), Princeton Univ Press, Oct 2018, 256p. | Book | Scholarly analysis | -Nuclear threats -Ecological threats -Tipping points -Global warming -Artificial intelligence | Chapters on nuclear threats, eco-threats and tipping points, staying within planetary boundaries, a warming world that engenders migration, clean energy prospects, biotech, pandemics, robotics and AI, truly existential risks, and the need to make wise choices about key societal challenges involving science. Notes that 鈥渓ong-term goals tend to slip down the political agenda, trumped by immediate problems,鈥� and comments on 鈥渄iscouragingly slow implementation鈥� of the UN鈥檚 SDGs. |
Ortwin Renn et al., Journal of Risk Research, 22:4, Dec 2017, 401-415p. | Journal Article | Scholarly analysis | -Climate change -Pandemics -Financial breakdowns -Social inequality -Systemic risks | Explores the challenges of managing risks that affect multiple systems from various disciplinary and sectoral perspectives. While many OECD countries have been successful in reducing risks to human lives, health, and the environment, they have not been as effective in managing new global risks such as climate change, pandemics, financial breakdowns, and social inequality. Since the global financial crisis, significant attention has been given to the challenge of systemic risks. However, there has been confusion around the concepts, which can detract from research and practical responses to this challenge. Emphasizes the unique contributions of these perspectives and approaches and provides a summary for an interdisciplinary understanding of systemic risks and effective governance. |
Bill McGuire, Oxford Univ Press, 2nd Edition, Aug 2014, 123p. | Book | Scholarly analysis | -Global warming -Super-eruptions -Giant tsunamis -Tectonic movements -Threats from space | Part of the OUP VSI series of >350 titles, with chapters on global warming, super-eruptions, giant tsunamis, the coming great quake, and threats from space. Nuclear winter and mass extinction of biodiversity are mentioned only in passing. Concludes that many 鈥渆nd-of-the-world鈥� scenarios that 鈥減ut even my doom-mongering to shame鈥� would simply result, at worst, in a severe fall in human numbers and/or contraction of our global technological civilization to something far simpler鈥攁t least for a time. 鈥淚t is highly unlikely that anything will wipe out all of us in the foreseeable future.鈥� (p112) |
Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Cirkovi (eds), Oxford University Press, July 2008, 554p. | Book | Scholarly analysis | -Natural disaster -Nuclear war -Terrorism -Global warming -Biological weapons | Defined as one with the potential to wreak destruction on a global scale. Examines the most serious risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including natural disasters, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. Also discusses broader issues such as policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. |
Richard A. Posner, Oxford University Press, Nov 2004, 322p.锘� | Book | Legal and policy analysis | -Natural catastrophes -Scientific accidents -Man-made disasters -Risk neglect -Systemic vulnerabilities | The risk of disasters is real and growing. Analyzes natural catastrophes, scientific accidents, and intentional/unintentional man-made disasters. Examines why so little action is taken on emerging risks and proposes response strategies. |
Harrison Brown. W.W. Norton, Jan 1978, 287p. | Book | Scholarly analysis | -Nuclear war -Oil sector dependence -Terrorism -Pandemics -Industrialism | Chapters on The Fissioning of Human Society, The Global Rich and Poor, Food, Energy, Global Changes (land, water, and air), and Vulnerabilities: all-out nuclear war as most serious danger, dependence on petroleum and nonfuel minerals, increasing complexity of industrial society, more sophisticated terrorists, pandemics, and 鈥渟ynergies of two or more inputs to the system鈥� exceeding their sum. 鈥淭he current odds certainly favor the extinction of industrial civilization.鈥� An update of The Challenge of Man鈥檚 Future (Viking, 1954; 290p). |
Online / February 23, 2026
